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Introduction
Emerging Urban Trends
• Urban Job Opportunities for a Growing Youth Population
• Decentralization—Municipal Government Autonomy
• Insufficient Affordable Housing
• Role for USAID Assistance
Urban Fact Sheets: Asia and the Near East
Introduction
The Near East and North Africa sub-region comprises diverse socio-economic and human settlement profiles with varying degrees of development and urbanization, heavily influenced by previous or current political unrest and conflict. The sub-region's internal disparities are reflected in the conditions of its cities and have resulted in widely varying domestic needs and priorities: rehabilitation and reconstruction (Lebanon, West Bank/Gaza); poverty alleviation (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco); and urban management and housing needs (Egypt, Jordan).1
These needs are compounded by rapidly growing urban populations. The population growth of the sub-region's cities creates pressure on existing infrastructure and generates an increased demand for services and housing. In response to this growth, city governments must find innovative and effective ways to finance and manage their administrations in order to maintain/improve living conditions and promote economic growth and stability. Cities in this sub-region also have to contend with a host of problems that impede these social and economic goals: deterioration of the urban environment, uncontrolled sprawl, discrepancies in access to services, and housing for the poor. Furthermore, highly centralized systems of governance with limited autonomy and accountability at the local level do not provide government officials the right structure and incentives to address the basic needs of its populations.2
Urban growth rates will remain higher than total population growth rates in the foreseeable future. Jordan and Lebanon's urban populations will increase to 80 percent and 93 percent of their total populations by 2015; while in certain Moroccan cities, recent annual growth rates have risen three to four times higher the country's population growth.3 In addition to higher rural-urban migration patterns, high rates of urbanization have been further stimulated by transnational migration.4
Emerging Urban Trends
Urban Job Opportunities for a Growing Youth Population
A primary indicator of economic growth is employment. Adequate employment potential is also a means to alleviate poverty. On a national level, the most recent unemployment rates in these countries range from 12 percent in Egypt to 40 percent in West Bank/Gaza. Urban levels of unemployment are either on par with these high jobless figures, or worse as exemplified by 2001 Morocco employment statistics. While the national unemployment rate was 13 percent, 20 percent of urban dwellers were unemployed, in comparison to 5 percent rural inhabitants.5 With the significant rural-urban migration trend in the sub-region, the labor market supply appears to have far exceeded demand.
In nearly all these countries, more than half the population is under 20 years old. These populations will continue to have very large youth cohorts through 2015, with the labor force growing annually at 3.1 percent. The problem of job placement in urban areas is compounded by weak educational systems producing a generation lacking the technical skills required for economic growth.6 This problem is once more exemplified in Morocco with 2001 unemployment rates of urban 15–24 year olds of 36 percent, and 25–34 year olds of 28 percent — far higher than the overall urban unemployment figure of 20 percent.
Decentralization—Municipal Government Autonomy
Decentralization is becoming an increasingly important trend in this sub-region. Many countries are attempting to transfer control of resources and decision-making powers from the central government to the local level.47 The potential benefits of successful decentralization are significant, however its challenges and obstacles are also numerous, including limited human and financial resources, workforce and service delivery management.
For example, Lebanon recently passed decentralization legislation in the late 1990s. It is estimated that only 30 out of 700 Lebanese municipalities have an adequate tax base to fund their administrations and delivery of urban services. In Morocco, decentralization improvements are exemplified by insufficient legislation to clearly define responsibilities for much needed waste collection, disposal, composting and recycling programs. Improvements in solid waste management in Moroccan cities are necessary to minimize the current public exposure to germs and disease.8 Without the authority and the financial resources to provide services to its local constituents, municipal governments throughout the sub-region will struggle to gain the trust and confidence of the general public.
Insufficient Affordable Housing
The lack of available housing for the low- and middle-income strata of the Near East and North Africa population is another critical area that requires attention to spur economic growth. For example, Cairo officials say that a fifth of the capital1s residents live in shantytowns on the periphery of the metropolis. In total, some 12 million Egyptians are believed to be living in unhygienic slums. Young married couples often wait for years before they can afford a place of their own -- however humble and cramped. An extreme illustration of the shortage of decent, affordable housing is provided by the million inhabitants in the "City of the Dead," living between tombs in a sprawling cemetery near Old Cairo.9
Many cities in the sub-region, such as Cairo, need to catch up with housing deficiencies. To improve the quality of life and social equity in these cities, it is crucial to improve the overall regulatory environment for housing development and access capital markets to create affordable housing finance alternatives. These endeavors will, as a result, lead to an improved livability of cities in the Near East and North Africa.10
Role for USAID Assistance
Employment Growth. The 'youth bulge' of the sub-region highlights a critical need for improved technical skill building and education, which will better the abilities of these economies to compete globally. With a concentration of youth in urban areas, technical assistance can support city-based technical training centers through scholarships and guidance to improve participants' job market opportunities. Access to credit for the informal, micro and small enterprise sector is another means to promote economic growth in the impoverished urban areas of this sub-region.
Decentralization. As central government transfer powers and responsibilities to the municipal level, efforts to enhance the capacity of city governments to manage the delivery of vital urban services in an efficient, democratic and transparent manner are critical. Innovative ways of financing infrastructure are also vital to future development and economic growth. Overall, improvements in the management, organization and capacities of these municipalities will lead to financially sustainable local governments. These governments will in turn be able to provide efficient and reliable services to its population. From a bottom-up approach, community-based NGOs and community groups should be engaged to take an active role in stimulating public participation in local government activities and decision-making.
Housing. Assistance to improve the efficiency and marketability of land and housing markets will promote more stable and more widely shared economic growth among the less affluent populations of this sub-region. Particular attention should be provided to refugees affected by recent conflicts, as well as low-income inhabitants in general, to create financial mechanisms that permit them to rent, buy or build safe and durable shelter.
1 www.un.org/ga/Istanbul+5/13.pdf
2 http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/mna/mena.nsf
3 From 1982-1994, the Morocco population increased annually 2.1%. During the same period, the city of Nador increased 6.5% while Témara experienced 9.3% annual growth.
4 (L'Environement urbain au Maroc from USAID/Morocco)
ibid.
5 Direction de la Statistique, Taux De Chomage Selon Le Sexe Et L'age Et Le Milieu De Residence Année 2001 from USAID/Morocco.
6 CIA, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts, December 2000.
7 http://www.usaid.gov/regions/ane/newpages/sectors/overview-dg.htm
8 L'Environement urbain au Maroc from USAID/Morocco
9 http://www.jrep.com/Mideast/Article-14.html, July 19, 1999
10 http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/mna/mena.nsf
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